UPPER HOUSE ELECTION 2010 / Poll: DPJ-led upper house win unlikely / Undecided voters seen swaying results

The Yomiuri Shimbun

The ruling coalition may fall short of retaining its majority in the House of Councillors after Sunday's election, according to projections and a nationwide survey by The Yomiuri Shimbun.

The Democratic Party of Japan will have a difficult time winning 54 seats, the number of DPJ seats being contested and the level that Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said would determine victory or defeat for his party. The findings indicate the DPJ very likely will fall short of that goal, ending up with about 50 seats.

It seems unlikely the ruling camp--the DPJ, its junior coalition partner the People's New Party and coalition-friendly independents--will secure the 56 seats that would allow them to retain their majority in the upper house.

The main opposition Liberal Democratic Party has a good chance to increase on its 38 seats being contested, with a possibility of securing about 45.

Among other opposition parties, Your Party and New Komeito should continue to enjoy solid support by each winning 10 or more seats.

However, as about 20 percent of voters have not yet decided for which party they will cast their votes, the results of the upper house contest could be significantly different from the projections.

The Yomiuri poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday on randomly selected eligible voters by telephone. The survey was run in collaboration with Nikkei Inc., the publisher of business daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun. Of 49,993 households with eligible voters surveyed, 31,791, or 64 percent, responded.

Compared with findings in a June 24-25 Yomiuri poll early in the campaign, both the DPJ and LDP have lost momentum in the constituency and proportional segments of the race.

In 29 single-seat prefectural constituencies, seen as crucial to victory in the upper chamber contest, the DPJ has continued to lag behind the LDP.

The DPJ leads the LDP in four such districts, one less than in the earlier poll. The LDP leads in 11 single-seat constituencies.

The findings suggest the two main parties are likely to split most of the 12 two-seat constituencies, but first-time DPJ candidates the party has fielded along with other DPJ candidates, with the aim of winning both seats in the constituencies, appear to be facing uphill battles.

In the five three-seat districts and five-seat Tokyo, the DPJ and LDP likely will win at least one seat in each.

In the proportional representation section, the DPJ initially appeared able to win nearly 20 seats, the same number the party obtained in the 2007 upper house election, but the party appears to be losing steam.

The decline in the DPJ's poll numbers accompanies a steady drop in the approval rating of the Kan Cabinet, which is largely due to the prime minister's inability to provide a convincing explanation about his proposed consumption tax hike.

However, the LDP is not faring well either, with the party likely to win less than the 14 seats it took in the proportional representation section in 2007.

It is even money as to whether Your Party can win one seat each in the electoral districts of Chiba, Kanagawa, Aichi and Tokyo. Combined with the seats the party could win in the proportional representation section, it seems possible Your Party could come away with close to 10 seats total.

New Komeito has been fighting tight races in all three constituencies where the party has fielded candidates, but the party could win a total of 10 seats in the election.

The Japanese Communist Party could secure four seats in the Tokyo constituency and the proportional representation section, the same number of its seats that are being contested.

The Social Democratic Party has had a tough race, with the possibility it may not even garner two seats, the party's past low in previous upper house elections.

The findings show that three minor parties--the PNP, the Sunrise Party of Japan headed by former economy and trade minister Takeo Hiranuma, and the New Renaissance Party led by LDP defector Yoichi Masuzoe--are likely to obtain at least one seat in the proportional representation section.