Swing votes hold key to DPJ race / Tangled intraparty loyalties complicate both camps' efforts to judge support

The Yomiuri Shimbun

Both Prime Minister Naoto Kan and former Democratic Party of Japan Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa are intensifying their appeals to members of centrist groups within the party, believing their support will be vital for winning the party's presidential election.

Both candidates' camps will have a hard time estimating the number of votes they can count on for the Sept. 14 poll, however, because many legislators belong to more than one of several loose-knit groups that are largely unaffiliated to either candidate.

The three most prominent centrist groups are those comprised of former members of the Democratic Socialist Party, former members of the Japan Socialist Party and so-called liberals--young and mid-ranking DPJ members who support the current Constitution.

A senior official of the Ozawa group telephoned a senior member of the group of former DSP members on Thursday. "Will you make a decision on your group's support for Mr. Ozawa soon? If your group supports him, Mr. Ozawa will take care of you," the official said, hinting that Ozawa, if elected party leader and thus prime minister, would offer the former DSP member a cabinet position.

Although the ex-DSP member did not confirm his position one way or another, he didn't hide his amazement at the Ozawa camp's lack of concern about how such an approach may be construed.

"It's typical of the Ozawa camp," he said.

Many of the former DSP members remain undecided on which candidate they will support. Some of the group's senior members--including Kansei Nakano, former vice speaker of the House of Representatives, and Keishu Tanaka, a lower house member--also belong to the group led by former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, an Ozawa supporter, but more than a few are anti-Ozawa.

As for the group of liberals, many of their members also remain undecided. Lower house member Hideo Hiraoka belongs to Kan's group, and many other liberals support Kan--but lower house member and liberal Hiroshi Kawauchi belongs to Hatoyama's group.

The group of former JSP members, meanwhile, is seen as unlikely to unify behind a single candidate. Former farm minister Hirotaka Akamatsu formally endorsed Ozawa's nomination for the election, while Yoshio Hachiro, chairman of the lower house's committee on health, labor and welfare, did the same for Kan.

The election may trigger the creation of even more intraparty groups, which could impact the membership of existing groups.

A group known as Ichimoku-kai comprises 31 DPJ lawmakers who won their seats after running only in the proportional representation section of last year's lower house election.

The group on Thursday decided to ask both Kan and Ozawa to act with caution regarding a proposal to reduce the number of seats in the Diet.

Ozawa was an unexpected attendee at a meeting held by the group--some of whom are Kan supporters--on Thursday evening at a restaurant in Akasaka in Tokyo.

Another group, which has been formed with the goal of having the presidential election focus on discussion of policy, decided at a Thursday meeting to hold an open forum to discuss policy matters, with both Kan and Ozawa to be invited.

Factions within the Liberal Democratic Party tend to be power-driven--LDP members are not allowed to belong to more than one faction at a time, and in some cases faction leaders even provide financial support to their subordinates. The DPJ's intraparty groups are more like what a senior official of the party calls "gatherings of ideologically like-minded people."

A two-term member of the lower house who belongs to more than one DPJ group said: "In terms of my affiliations, I'm 50 percent with the group of former JSP members, 30 percent with Kan's group and 20 percent with Hatoyama's group.

"I've often been invited to take part in meetings of the groups led by Seiji Maehara [land, infrastructure, transport and tourism minister] and Yoshihiko Noda [finance minister]," the two-term lawmaker added.

Considering the prevalence of such mixed loyalties, a senior official of Kan's group said, "We can't estimate our support by counting votes in terms of groups."

Kan's group is instead focusing on the younger members of the centrist groups, dividing them into different categories according to their history of participation in Ozawa-affiliated activities.

Three main categories, which involve some overlap between them, are the 140 who accompanied Ozawa, then the party secretary general, on his visit to China in December; the 150 who attended a seminar chaired by Hatoyama in Karuizawamachi, Nagano Prefecture last month; and members of the Diet Affairs Committee, a body that is closely associated with Ozawa.

As a senior official in the Kan camp said, "If a young legislator hasn't often taken part in activities and events like these, there's a chance they'll come around to support Mr. Kan." Kan's group plans to make personal approaches to such individuals.