Survey shows Kan, Ozawa in close fight

The Yomiuri Shimbun

Prime Minister Naoto Kan and former Democratic Party of Japan Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa are neck and neck in the race for party president, according to a Yomiuri Shimbun survey conducted Friday on DPJ lawmakers and others eligible to vote in the leadership election.

Kan, who is the current party leader, and Ozawa are believed to have the support of about 160 party legislators each for the Sept. 14 election, according to the poll taken two days after official campaigning began. About 90 DPJ lawmakers have yet to disclose which candidate they will favor in the two-person race. Whom these legislators support in the race is being closely watched, as the party leader is virtually certain to become prime minister.

As things stand now, Kan leads Ozawa in pledges of support from local DPJ assembly members, rank-and-file party members and registered supporters eligible to vote in the election. With 10 days to go until the election, the war of words between the two candidates could have great bearing on their standing in the race.

The survey was conducted mainly via interviews with DPJ Diet members, prefectural chapter executives, local assembly members, rank-and-file party members and registered supporters.

The party's 412 Diet members are eligible to vote in the election, and about half this number are in their first Diet term. Kan and Ozawa have each secured support from 70 to 80 of these freshman lawmakers.

Kan's support mostly came from his own intraparty group and from groups led by Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Minister Seiji Maehara and Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda. Among Cabinet ministers, senior vice ministers and parliamentary secretaries, about 70 percent have said they will vote for Kan. Ozawa had a lead over Kan in support from House of Representatives members who were elected through proportional representation. This apparently is because Ozawa headed the 2009 lower house election and was heavily involved in the selection of candidates.

Ozawa had secured support from more than 70 percent of members of his own group, which is the largest in the DPJ. However, about 20 percent of the Ozawa group had not clarified their stance, and eight said they would support Kan.

About 40 percent of a group led by former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, about 50 percent of DPJ members who formerly belonged to the Democratic Socialist Party and nearly 30 percent of those who previously belonged to the Japan Socialist Party also had not clarified their positions.

Supporters of both Kan and Ozawa were working hard to sway the undecided lawmakers, trying to undermine support for their opponent.

With respect to local assembly members, rank-and-file party members and registered supporters, Kan seemed to have attracted 60 percent to 70 percent of the total, a reflection of his high support rate among the general public.

It is likely that Ozawa will gain a certain degree of support from rank-and-file party members and registered supporters in his native Iwate Prefecture, as well as Okinawa Prefecture, where residents are increasingly unhappy with the Kan administration's position on the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station.

In the leadership election, votes from party Diet members, local assembly members, rank-and-file party members and registered supporters are converted into a total of 1,224 points. The candidate who wins a majority of points wins the election. Diet members' votes account for 824 points, about 70 percent of the total.