CHANGING WORLD 2012--Japan and East Asia / Focus of Russia's resource diplomacy may shift to Far East

The Yomiuri Shimbun

This is the fifth and last installment of the first part of a series focusing on the formation of a new international order, and potential leadership changes this year in the United States, China and Russia.

The Republic of Sakha, also known as Yakutia, in eastern Siberia is the coldest inhabited area on Earth, with the mercury sometimes dropping to minus 50 C.

It also is home to the gigantic Chayanda gas field, located within the taiga biome of coniferous forests. The field has an estimated 1.24 trillion cubic meters of recoverable gas reserves, equal to 13 years of Japan's imports of natural gas.

A project will get under way this year to lay a 3,000-kilometer pipeline from the Chayanda field to Vladivostok in the Russian Far East.

"When the pipeline is completed, we'll be able to meet any supply requirements for gas from Japan, China and South Korea," Vladimir Vasilyev, deputy executive director of a subsidiary of state-run gas corporation Gazprom, said proudly.

In preparation for the full-scale start of gas exports from Siberia to Asian countries, a Japan-Russia joint project is under way to construct a liquefied natural gas plant in Vladivostok.

Following feasibility studies scheduled to be completed this month, work will begin on basic design of the plant, with an eye to beginning operations around 2020.

A senior Gazprom official said the plant will "serve as an LNG supply center for not only Japan but all of Asia."

Construction of the huge pipeline extending to Vladivostok from the gas field is a national project promoted by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin as an embodiment of his Asian strategy. Putin is considered certain to win Russia's upcoming presidential election in March, returning him to his former post.

Putin will try to maintain economic growth, an indispensable element in achieving a stable administration. So there is a strong possibility he will shift the focus of his diplomacy to Asia, a growth center of the world. The best weapon in this regard is natural resources.

"It sounds like an interesting idea," Putin reportedly said last August when he was briefed by an executive of the country's oil and gas industry about a plan to build a pipeline linking Sakhalin in the Russian Far East with Japan, where there were concerns about energy shortages in the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake.

The president of a Japanese development company involved in the pipeline plan said, "We think Russia will surely go ahead with the project if arrangements are made by the Japanese side."

Putin is calling for Japan to also participate in the Chayanda development project.

Russia has been edging into the Japanese energy market in recent years. Russia accounted for 4.3 percent of Japan's gas imports in 2009, but this percentage doubled to 8.6 percent in 2010. Russia also provided 7 percent of Japan's crude oil imports in 2010.

Putin will pursue natural resource diplomacy toward Tokyo. Joining Russian projects would provide a good chance for Japan to acquire resources and development rights, but there is also the danger that its energy security will be influenced by Russia.

Many in Japan have a strong aversion to relying too much on Russia, as the two countries have long been at odds over four Russian-held islands off Hokkaido.

According to diplomatic sources, opinions are divided on the matter within the Japanese government, with some favoring more cooperation with Russia to break away from its heavy reliance on the Middle East. Others feel Japan should not rely on Russia for more than 15 percent of its energy imports. Hence Japan's stance on the matter has not been decided.

Gazprom's head office in Moscow has a control center to supervise all its pipelines. On a map of the Eurasian continent displayed on a huge screen, the European portion glitters with brilliant fluorescent colors indicating its extensive network of pipelines. The Far East and Siberian side remains dark.

Putin's ambition is to brighten the entire map.