Present new strategy to stop global warming

Signs of global warming can be seen in various places across the globe.

The area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice shrunk to its smallest ever in the summer of 2007. In Siberia, melting permafrost is resulting in increased release of methane trapped underground. The ice cap atop Mt. Kilimanjaro in Kenya is in danger of disappearing.

Abnormal meteorological phenomena such as massive hurricanes are becoming more frequent and are believed to be caused by global warming. Japan's highest temperature of 40.9 C was recorded last summer, breaking a record that stood for 74 years.

Global warming is not a thing of the future. It is an urgent issue that must be tackled immediately with the cooperation of all nations.

Japan, as host nation of the Group of Eight summit meeting in July at the Lake Toya hot-spring resort in Toyakocho, Hokkaido, must play a leading role in the fight against global warming.

This year marks the beginning of the five-year period during which industrial nations are obliged to cut greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol.

When the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, there was a certain amount of momentum among nations to jointly tackle global warming. The accord, however, fell short of creating a unified front among the international community to deal with the problem.

The United States, widely regarded as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases until recently, withdrew its commitment to the Kyoto Protocol in 2001, arguing it could adversely affect its economy.

China, which some institutions regard as the largest emitter of such gases based on the latest data, and India, the fifth-largest emitter, are not obliged to cut gas emissions as they are considered developing countries under the protocol.

Kyoto only partial solution

Gas emissions by the countries required to cut them under the Kyoto Protocol account for only 30 percent of total global emissions.

There are no international regimens for fighting global warming other than the clearly flawed Kyoto Protocol.

According to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the cowinner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, the average temperature is projected to rise by up to 6.4 C by the end of this century unless effective measures are taken to address the problem of global warming.

Rises in temperature inevitably cause drought, damaging crop harvests and resulting in water shortages. They also cause flooding from rising sea levels, leading to the spread of infectious diseases.

To prevent this, the international community must speed the process of putting measures to fight global warming in place after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. Flaws made in creating the Kyoto Protocol must not be repeated.

First, it is important to have a post-Kyoto framework encompass all major greenhouse gas emitters, including China and the United States. While the Kyoto Protocol mainly obliged industrial nations to cut their gas emissions, the new framework should require developing nations to shoulder adequate burdens.

Next, concrete rules on ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have to be formulated. Should specific reduction targets be set for each country as was done under the Kyoto Protocol or should other methods be adopted?

During the 13th session of the Conference of the Parties to Climate Change Convention (COP13) held last month, participating countries tangled over whether to set a numerical target for greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by developed countries as a whole. As a result, stipulating such a target was postponed for further discussions.

There is no doubt that each country will champion its own interests even more fiercely when it comes to discussions on setting country-by-country numerical targets.

The European Union is calling for country-by-country reduction targets, apparently aiming at developing emission trading markets in the region.

Since its withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol, the United States has been firmly opposed to setting targets. A confrontational structure pitting the European Union against the United States has taken hold in international negotiations over global warming countermeasures.

Japan, which has fretted over how to keep the United States at the negotiating table, has yet to clarify its own position on whether to set obligatory reduction quotas for each country. The nation's industrial sector strongly rejects the method.

National targets needed

However, country-by-country reduction targets are necessary for each nation to responsibly tackle cutting greenhouse gas emissions. A breakthrough must be achieved in future negotiations.

The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush is considered to be reluctant to take environmental protection measures, but Washington may significantly shift its approach if the Democrats take power.

China's position makes the problem even more complex. Beijing rejects taking on any obligation of its own while demanding developed countries make further efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Developed countries must take concerted action to pressure China, as a major greenhouse gas emitter, to shoulder a reasonable share of responsibility.

The Kyoto Protocol obliges Japan to curb greenhouse gas emissions by an average 6 percent from the 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. Though the Kyoto Protocol is imperfect, Japan, which ratified it, has to do everything it can to live up to its obligation.

However, achieving the 6 percent reduction is a hard task for Japan, which already had a high level of energy-saving technology and energy conservation in fiscal 1990. Indeed, the amount of Japan's greenhouse gas emissions in fiscal 2006 was 6.4 percent larger than that in fiscal 1990.

Achieving aims

The Environment Ministry plans to purchase greenhouse gas emission quotas from overseas so it can offset some portions of emissions to achieve the 6 percent reduction target. According to one estimate, this scheme would cost as much as 1.2 trillion yen. Would the public be willing to accept a plan to spend a chunk of taxpayers' money for the mere purpose of achieving the required 6 percent reduction while the country is in dire fiscal straits?

Japan has propounded a target of halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. What we need now is not stopgap measures, but a policy with a long-term perspective.

Japan could contribute to the global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions more than ever by further promoting innovation of energy-saving technologies and offering its know-how to developing countries.

This year's G-8 summit meeting will have a decisive impact on creating a post-Kyoto Protocol framework. Japan, as the summit chairman, must take the initiative and present a definitive strategy in discussions there.